I am a punter and have been since I was introduced to matched betting back in 2004. I took a small post of £100 and turned into around £3000, enough to buy a decent holiday and a few bits and pieces for the house. There are a number of sites that can help with matched betting, but the one I now use is Bettrick.
I became a little caught up in the gambling bug and spent too much money on daft ideas, before I reigned myself in. I read all about value betting and started to work on a way of spotting whether a football bet was good value or not. There are loads of sites out there that claim to show you value using their formula’s but they never worked for me. After all if it was that easy then the bookies would be out of business, and lets face it there doesn’t seem to be any sign of that!
Over the years I gradually narrowed my criteria, looking at a whole range of factors that I thought could affect the outcome of the football match. I still never quite seemed to get it right, until October 2008.
I had initially set this site up to test ideas and review bookmakers, and I was busy posting articles on value and testing various other systems that people were selling when I made the breakthrough. This is the post I originally made on 8th October 2008.
The international break is with us yet again, so after much perusing of t’internet I thought I’d take a different view on betting than I normally do. Over the last few months I have been tracking so called “Clear Favourites” to test the idea that money can be made by betting on favourites. So far the research is suggesting that if all you look at is the odds, then the answer is no. But what if you do what all hardened punters should do and pour over the form and odds till you found a favourite that was more than just a clear favourite – what if you were betting on a “Dead Cert”?
Is there such a thing as a dead cert?
Punters often stake more than they should on events because they believe that they have found a such a thing, so for the next couple of months I will be betting on football events that I believe are “Dead Certs” for one reason or another. I will also be looking for value in the betting, there is very little point in backing a team because the odds quoted are very, very short.
Because the odds are shorter on such events it will require a higher than usual stake. I will be starting with a £200 kitty and will bet half of my kitty on the events. If there are 2 events this will mean that to start with I will stake £50 on each event, if there are 3 events I will stake £33 on each event. Once my kitty has doubled I will increase my bet sizes accordingly. So staking levels will rise at £400 and then again at £800.
The picks for this weekend are:
Holland @ 1.17 v Iceland with Bet365 or Boylesports
Holland are top of their qualifying group, Iceland are bottom. The last 6 games has seen Holland take maximum points from four of those games, they lost to Russia in the Euros’ and to Belarus away. – £33 staked.
Greece @ 1.22 v Moldova with Coral
Geece are also top playing bottom placed Moldova. Greece haven’t been winning as well as Holland, They were disappointing in the Euros given they were defending champions, their losses were too Russia, Spain and Sweden. – £33 Staked
Belgium @ 1.25 v Armenia with Paddy Power
Although only 3rd in their table (behind Spain and Turkey) Belgium have decent form, having earned a draw away with Turkey and beating Estonia in the group games so far. They have also only lost once in the last 6 competitive games, away to Poland. – £33 Staked.
The initial 3 bets all came in and I was off. Not every bet won, as you will see from the results, and there were indeed losing months but I am definitely ahead of the bookies. This is no scam and I bet my own cash on all the selections I make, so win or lose I am celebrating or swearing just the same as anyone who follows me.
Why am I telling you that occasionally I lose money? Simple honesty, if you have looked at the systems that are being hawked around, they all follow the same pattern. They have a splash page with well written copy that promises the earth if only you had the balls to sign up. “Don’t delay!” “Only 32 copies left!” One thing I have learned is that anyone that tells you they never lose is almost certainly lying, unless they have a DeLorean parked nearby.
I do lose, but I win more than I lose in the long run and football betting is all about the long term. So, no hype, no bull. Your choice is simple. If you want to benefit from my years of research, then sign up now. If you want to make your own way, then “Good luck!”
