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Value Betting the Draw – a reprise.
I had a thought last night – a rare occurrence on a Friday, but this one made me rethink the value betting the draw scenario. I made an assumption based on the equation for giving value to draws, and we all know what assumptions result in when applied to gambling.
The assumption was that the equation for finding the value of a draw would apply to all leagues. However, it was based on the English leagues (Premiership to Division 2) and as a result MAY NOT apply to foreign leagues where historical data may produce an entirely different equation.
With this in mind I am only going to post the English league selections, though I will be tracking the foreign leagues behind the scenes.
Todays selections are:
Crystal Palace v Watford @ 3.40 with BetFred = Loss -£10
Derby v Reading @ 3.42 with Pinnacle = Loss =£10 (-£20)
Newcastle v Swansea @ 3.64 with Pinnacle = Loss = -£10 (-£30)
Nottingham v Doncaster @ 3.58 with Pinnacle = Loss = -£10 (-£40)
Peterboro v Middlesbrough @ 3.40 with Pinnacle = Win = +£24 (-£16)
Plymouth v Barnsley @ 3.40 with Pinnacle = Abandoned
Blackburn v Stoke @ 3.52 with Pinnacle = Win = +£25.20 (+£9.20)
Man City v Hull @ 5.68 with Pinnacle = Win = +£46.80 (+£56)
Portsmouth v Man United @ 5.15 with Pinnacle = Loss = -£10 (+£46)
West Ham v Burnley @ 3.77 with Pinnacle = Loss = -£10 (+£36)
Wigan v Sunderland @ 3.50 with Coral = Loss = -£10 (+£26)
Aston Villa v Tottenham @ 3.40 with Pinnacle = Win = +£24 (+50)
As you can see Pinnacle are regularly offering the best odds on the market, I have now opened an account with them and will be writing the review this weekend. So far their customer service has been excellent as I had a small problem with depositing to the account, and although they only offer email support, this is 24 hours and they really do make sure that they are going the extra mile to be courteous and quick.
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As things stand we are £26 up on the day with one game to come, so a guaranteed return of at least £16.
Aston Villa v Tottenham was a draw meaning that we are £50 up on the day.
£50 up days are what we like
Two for today.
Cardiff v Ipswich @ 3.62 with Pinnacle
Everton v Liverpool @ 3.46 with Pinnacle
I am working through the Italian Serie A today – to see how they match up.
Theses are the league one two matches for tonight to watch
Brentford v Colchester @ 3.54
Bristol Rvs V Exeter @ 3.54
Carlisle v Hartlepool @ 3.58
Huddersfield v Tranmere @ 5.13
Leyton Orient v Gillingham @ 3.40
Southampton v Wycombe @ 4.55
Southend v Norwich @ 3.50
Yeovil v Walsall @ 3.40
Barnet v Bournemouth @ 3.40
Bradford v Rochdale @ 3.43
Burton v Accrington @ 3.40
Dag and Red v Aldershot @ 3.72
Lincoln v Port Vale @ 3.40
Northampton v Hereford @ 3.44
Notts County v Darlington @ 5.41
Shrewsbury v Rotherham @ 3.40
Torquay v Cheltenham @ 3.56
This is the last weekend of the tracking of the value bet draws. There will be a round up post to summarise the findings – if any.
C Blackpool v Barnsley @ 3.72
C Bristol City v Ipswich @ 3.39
C Cardiff v Preston @ 3.68
C Newcastle v Watford @ 4.17
C Peterboro v Swansea @ 3.41
C Plymouth v Sheffield United @ 3.47
C Sheffield Weds v Reading @ 3.40
L1 Leeds v Huddersfield @ 3.84
L1 Colchester v Bristol Rvs @ 3.70
L1 Gillingham v Carlisle @ 3.44
L1 Hartlepool v Millwall @ 3.40
L1 Milton Keynes Dons v Yeovil @ 3.75
L1 Tranmere v Brentford @ 3.41
L1 Walsall v Southampton @ 3.60
L2 Accrington v Torquay @ 3.50
L2 Aldershot v Chesterfield @ 3.49
L2 Bournemouth v Shrewsbury @ 3.60
L2 Bury v Barnet @ 3.61
L2 Cheltenham v Northampton @ 3.46
L2 Darlington v Bradford @ 3.73
L2 Grimsby v Dagenham @ 3.52
L2 Hereford v Notts County @ 3.61
L2 Port Vale v Morecombe @ 3.50
L2 Rochdale v Macclesfield @ 4.30
L2 Rotherham v Burton @ 4.08
P Portsmouth v Burnley @ 3.54
P Arsenal v Stoke @ 5.98
P Aston Villa v Hull @ 4.60
P Blackburn v Liverpool @ 3.68
P West Ham v Man United @ 4.56
P Wigan v Birmingham @ 3.44