Betting the Favourite

Is it possible to make a profit by increasing your win percentage?

On the surface the answer would be yes, however this doesn’t take into account the odds on which you are betting.

This test resulted from a conversation in the pub, where one person stated that if you bet on the clear favourite then your would win more because you would win more often. We tried explaining that the odds would prevent this, but he was insistent.

So we got to discussing, what is a clear favourite? Eventually we came to a conclusion based on the odds on offer. Essentially the difference between the odds was the factor that we identified. If the difference is 3 or more in their decimal odds then there was a clear favourite.

We have published 137 bets placed this way, and after this the system was effectiveky breaking even, this doesn’t represent a good ROI, so even if by the end of the season the system was profitable we don’t feel that it is a sensible way of betting and have stopped the trial.

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